3:30 pm observations on tropics.. Hanna: Hanna may be getting ready to get its act together as the past few hours it appears the system has stopped and allowing convection to start to close in on it. In addition, if one looks at the large ellipse of dry air around it, one notices it now shifted northwest of the system, as if Hanna is now near of south of the mid level circulation that has been looping her around, not south and southeast. If this speculation is correct then it means the low level center moves in a direction to INTERSECT with the convection that has been following this, not away from it. All this is of course speculation, but Bertha deepened modestly in these waters before landfall, its later in the year a better surface map and upper map, and so I will hold with my landfall pressure at 995 or lower. I will know tonight as we will be able to see if this speculation is correct.
Expect the 4pm TPC update to read something like this, "Hanna is basically stationary. We've expected this all along as it now beings its much anticipated movement to the NNE. Pressures haven't fallen much this afternoon, but there is a possbility of some strengthening prior to landfall late tonight." - You've heard it all before.
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