both the systems mentioned in the two have the potential to develop, in spite of the downplay they're officially getting. as the tallahassee extended discussion mentions, the true nature of the gulf system will be questionable (nhc is stand-offish about hybrids), and the system east of the antilles should be drawn up into a deep trough in the central atlantic. both will be trying to develop in a baroclinic environment, so i'm guessing nhc may choose to ignore them unless their appearances are clearly on the tropical side. should be a defined low near the tx/mx border by late thursday moving ne. evolution of the atlantic system highly dependent on how much energy is entrained into the max on the trough cutting off this weekend. kay and the invest pair in the eastpac have the atlantic response timer going.. sometime 5-10 days from october 4th there will quite possibly be an atlantic feature that goes (or features that go). don't think the globals are reading into things right now.. pattern will evolve differently than what gfs keeps indicating (trending to zonal in the extended period) if soi goes solidly negative (which it ought to before too long). HF 2041z05october
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