Over the last 24hours the LLC that went inland near Tampico dissapaited while the midlevel low stayed offshore. As the night progresed into the predawn hours a new LLC developed just south of the midlevel low as pressures in the area were relatively low near 1007mb and strong ts with cloud tops as cold as -60 were over the area. Nevertheless a new LLC has formed (which happens alot with broad area of low pressures) and recon is being sent in again to find out not only if this is a TD but if this is a tropical storm. I'm not sure if they will call it a storm but if they find any pressure lower then what we have now then I feel it should be named. Winds over the gulf in the strong convection show wind gusts up to 48mph and close to tropical storm strength offshore the LA coast. Movement should be off to the NE and then go ENE nearing the coast. I feel the models are too N with the movement of the system but its not out of the question. Westerlys are pretty far south right now and might dig just alittle more. Strength is hard to tell. Models expect this to come inland in 24-36hours. If it stays more ENE then it wont make landfall till Sunday night or Monday morning and that will give it more time to strengthn. Water temps are marginal from N.O. thru Panama City but farther offshore near 83dg. Water temps near Tampa are near 82dg. I expect it can have a chance to get close to Hurricane strength later Saturday night into Sunday morning if it goes more ene although shear will be the main inhibitor. The shear will though be less also if it stays more ene cause it will be further south from the main westerly shear north of the system. Also the system will be moving along with the flow of the upper winds so the shear will be less. Anyways right now its recon and NHC call then we can figure out the exact path and strength. I feel this will be at least 50-60mph at landfall but again it could be up to Hurricane strength by sunday morning as I see it could go further east.
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