The NHC is waiting on recon info to determine if this is a TD. It sure looks like one to me. There is really no reason to rush classification of this system. It is weak and the NHC does not want to create a frenzy if it is not necessary. I concur with that discretion. With that said, this system is likely to become Matthew shortly. It has enough tropical characteristics to classify it as such. The NHC will not refrain from classifying this system if the recon reports a closed surface low and appropriate wind speeds.
This system is typical of many October tropical cyclones that interact with mid latitude troughs. It will be lop-sided, and it will struggle with vertical stacking, but it will have a good chance of becoming a 65-70mph TS, like Josephine in 1996. It will maintain enough tropical characteristics through landfall, at which time it will be completing its conversion to a baroclinic low.
Another quick point. We always need to carefully watch out for re-formations of the LLC in these systems. Sometimes, a new LLC will form closer to the MLC and beneath deeper convection, leading to bursts of intensification, and slight track changes. TS Gordon of 2000 reminds me of this.
God Bless, Ronn
-------------------- Ronn Raszetnik - Hazards Geographer
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