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11 dissipates, Leslie Forms unlikely to affect US. Kirk will need to be watched in the Caribbean (but likely to remain weak).
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Florence) , Major: 369 (Maria) Florida - Any: 378 (Irma) Major: 378 (Irma)
9.5N 37.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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32.6N 48.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
S at 6 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
October activity
      Mon Oct 18 2004 06:40 PM

The basin isn't terribly active, but there are a couple of things to watch. Nothing out near Africa, however, so for those of you with the METEOSAT-7 bookmarks in plain view...I think it's safe to say you can put those away for this season.

First feature of note is a small mid/upper low just east of the islands at about 12 N and 55 W. It's nothing much right now, but it cut off from the main flow and, if it were to work its way down to the surface (effectively cutting off the self-inflicted shear going on right now), something could develop. Not terribly likely, but not unlikely either. Several days away from development at the least, if at all.

Convection in the SW Caribbean has subsided for now. There is very little organization to the activity and it is nearing a region of higher shear just to its north, so further development is not likely. However, any time something perks up down there this time of year, it must be watched. The boundary just to its north is stalling and could provide something to watch, but that's just storm mongering at this point. None of the above scenarios has a great shot at developing, though the one in the previous paragraph probably has the greatest shot.

We've also got a weak boundary that should enter the Gulf in the next couple of days. It's not projected to stick around very long -- and with the current pattern, it will be weak and won't have any sort of impetus to move it south -- but bears watching nonetheless.

With time, the odds are dropping off like a rock of another storm -- at least insofar as climatology would suggest. We probably won't see another storm of truly tropical origins this season; instead, anything that develops is likely to be the result of an upper low working its way to the surface or an old frontal boundary stalling out and spinning up a warm-core low. Another storm this year is probably likely; it just won't be for a few days. Let's just hope the overall pattern has changed by then from what it is likely to be in the short-term, lest the Florida coast be in danger once again. Anything that gets past the trough over Cuba right now would be left in a region of weak steering currents...and/or accelerated towards Florida.

--------------------
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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A Change of Season Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Oct 18 2004 06:40 PM
. * * October activity Clark   Mon Oct 18 2004 06:40 PM
. * * Re: October activity Keith234   Mon Oct 18 2004 06:56 PM
. * * Re: October activity James88   Tue Oct 19 2004 11:59 AM
. * * Re: October activity Keith234   Tue Oct 19 2004 02:39 PM
. * * Re: October activity HanKFranK   Tue Oct 19 2004 03:02 PM
. * * Re: October activity Wxwatcher2   Fri Oct 22 2004 10:12 PM
. * * Re: October activity James88   Sat Oct 23 2004 02:17 PM
. * * Otto? James88   Sat Oct 23 2004 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Otto? Keith234   Sat Oct 23 2004 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Otto? LI Phil   Sat Oct 23 2004 06:16 PM
. * * Re: October activity Keith234   Tue Oct 19 2004 03:52 PM
. * * October Over? LI Phil   Tue Oct 19 2004 09:42 PM
. * * Re: October Over? ShanaTX   Wed Oct 20 2004 12:21 AM
. * * Re: October Over? MoparMitch   Wed Oct 20 2004 10:06 AM
. * * Re: October Over? James88   Thu Oct 21 2004 03:19 PM
. * * Re: October Over? LI Phil   Thu Oct 21 2004 06:13 PM
. * * Re: October Over? James88   Thu Oct 21 2004 06:35 PM
. * * Re: October Over? Keith234   Fri Oct 22 2004 09:07 PM
. * * Re: October Over? GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 21 2004 07:04 PM
. * * Re: October Over? Steve   Wed Oct 20 2004 12:02 AM
. * * Re: October activity Steve   Tue Oct 19 2004 03:51 PM
. * * Re: October activity Steve hirschb.   Tue Oct 19 2004 02:55 PM
. * * Re: October activity LONNY307   Tue Oct 19 2004 01:07 PM
. * * Re: October activity Storm Cooper   Tue Oct 19 2004 01:56 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season ShanaTX   Thu Oct 14 2004 01:44 AM
. * * Re: A Change of Season LI Phil   Thu Oct 14 2004 10:24 AM
. * * Re: A Change of Season Rabbit   Thu Oct 14 2004 07:12 PM
. * * Numbers... LI Phil   Thu Oct 14 2004 07:52 PM
. * * Re: Numbers... Matt033   Thu Oct 14 2004 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether danielwAdministrator   Fri Oct 15 2004 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether Steve hirschb.   Fri Oct 15 2004 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether Keith234   Fri Oct 15 2004 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether LI Phil   Fri Oct 15 2004 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether Keith234   Fri Oct 15 2004 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether HanKFranK   Fri Oct 15 2004 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether GuppieGrouper   Sat Oct 16 2004 09:13 AM
. * * Re: N of Panama summercyclone   Sun Oct 17 2004 12:25 PM
. * * Re: N of Panama Storm Cooper   Sun Oct 17 2004 12:32 PM
. * * Re: N of Panama Hurric   Mon Oct 18 2004 08:30 AM
. * * Re: N of Panama Ed in Va   Mon Oct 18 2004 01:59 PM
. * * Recapitulate of Weather Keith234   Mon Oct 18 2004 05:41 PM
. * * Forgot link Ed in Va   Mon Oct 18 2004 02:12 PM
. * * Re: N of Panama Keith234   Sun Oct 17 2004 03:20 PM
. * * looks like it's getting a bit of organization Bloodstar   Thu Oct 14 2004 01:34 AM
. * * Re: A Change of Season Keith234   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:06 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season DroopGB31   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:17 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season LI Phil   Wed Oct 13 2004 11:32 AM
. * * Re: A Change of Season Steve hirschb.   Wed Oct 13 2004 12:54 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season HanKFranK   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:19 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season DroopGB31   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:37 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season LI Phil   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:38 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season DroopGB31   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:43 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season LI Phil   Wed Oct 13 2004 04:44 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season recmod   Wed Oct 13 2004 09:38 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 13 2004 09:50 PM
. * * Attachments recmod   Wed Oct 13 2004 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Attachments danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 13 2004 11:05 PM
. * * OT: Before Charlie hit Florida... RedingtonBeachGuy   Wed Oct 13 2004 10:47 PM
. * * Re: OT: Before Charlie hit Florida... Redbird   Thu Oct 14 2004 05:59 PM
. * * Attachments LI Phil   Wed Oct 13 2004 09:51 PM
. * * Re: A Change of Season MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 13 2004 05:29 PM

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