Senior Storm Chaser
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: October activity
Tue Oct 19 2004 03:51 PM
Time to look back on my forecast and see what happened.
>>...I’ll stay with the flow and guess that we’ll see about 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 Intense Hurricanes.
Far too low.
>>Based on everything I’m looking at, it looks as though any trend toward a quiet Gulf year will be again interrupted in 2004...Factoring in some of the analog years seems to indicate a better than average chance for a strong hit on Texas and/or NW Florida.
That was 50/50 (NW FL paid).
Landfall forecast areas:
>>Brownsville, TX to Lafayette, LA = 2 named storm hits and potentially a strong to major hurricane hit.
Wrongo. 1 Tropical storm hit.
>>Lafayette, LA to Pascagoula, MS = 1-2 hits, most likely weaker systems (e.g. Tropical Storms)
Right. 1 storm hit (Matthew)
>>MS/AL line to Cedar Key, FL = 2 named storm hits with the potential for a strong to intense storm between Panama City Beach, FL and Mobile Bay, AL. It should be noted that areas north of there in Southern Georgia are currently experiencing drought conditions. One of the ways out of droughts is through the influx of tropical moisture. However, the drought conditions there are not considered severe at this time.
Good job by me there. We had two (actually 3 with Bonnie) systems go up through that area. The call of a potentially severe storm between Mobile Bay and PCB was pretty good if I don't mind an extra pat on my own back.
>>West Coast of Florida south of Cedar Key = potential for 1 tropical storm or weaker (Cat 1) Hurricane. No definite hit predicted.
Lots of pass-thru activity. Charley had a fairly rare track for the time of year. He was a big-ticket item.
>>FL Keys = Impossible to predict. Based on the NHC’s probability tables for active storms (a storm passes within 65 miles of a specific area), one would expect the keys to see a brush by.
Charley blew up between the Keys and SW FL.
>>Homestead, FL to Duval County, FL = Possible impact from a hurricane cutting west beneath anticipated ridging off the SE Coast. No specific hits predicted.
Way off here. I got the "cutting west" part right, but who knew that we'd see serious impacts from two strong hurricanes?
>>GA & SC Coasts = No hits predicted. Possible impacts from Gulf systems coming up from the South.
We definitely had that but we also had Gaston in SC.
>>NC Coast – You can never discount coastal North Carolina as it, along with FL and SE LA seems to be at least brushed every year by a system. I don’t see any early direct hits but depending on the evolution of the late summer to early fall, it’s possible that we could see some coastal impact on the Outer Banks. I do expect there will be several fish spinners during ‘low tide” of the Atlantic Ridge. This will most likely provide good surfing at different points during the hurricane season.
Alex sort of fits this bill.
>>Virginia Coast to Delmarva Peninsula = No anticipated landfalls. Possible impact from storms coming up from the SW.
Got that pretty good.
>>New Jersey = No anticipated landfalls.
>>Long Island through coastal Maine = Potential late season impact if the warm waters off the NC Coast remain intact for most of the summer. Impact could be from phasing later in the season or from a hurricane curving out to sea and clipping the Cape in MA.
Got the curving out TS in Hermine and some other effects from inland storms recurving
>>Canadian Maritimes = 2 anticipated landfalls. Because of late season blocks, it’s possible that any system off the east coast of the United States will move N or NNE on its way to distribute heat from the tropics to the north. Bear in mind that the Maritimes extend east to 53W and provide an easy target for a north moving or late curving storm.
A little light there. We had effects from a few storms in the Maritimes, but there was only one real impact (Nicole)
I think this was my worst landfall forecast BY FAR in the 3 years I've been doing them. It warrants probably a solid "C", but that ain't good enough especially after the success in 2001 and 2002. I'll try harder next year to come up with better ideas.
MF'n Super Bowl Champions