Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Not Much Change
Wed Mar 09 2005 06:55 PM
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The Atlantic Tropical Basin looks pretty much like it should for this time of year with a few subtle differences from last March. The ITCZ is rather zonal this year and extends across the entire basin at about 5N. Last year the ITCZ had more of a west southwesterly dip to it and nudged into the Southern Hemisphere as it approached South America.
ENSO neutral conditions are expected for the entire upcoming season with the Atlantic expected to be slightly warmer than normal from 10N to 30N by August - which would generally favor an active season.
Ridging persists through the entire Caribbean Sea - again a little different from last year when it was a bit more prone to storm activity. The Caribbean Sea is about the only location in the basin with very little shear thanks to a firm high pressure pattern.
Still a bit too early to nail down any specifics, however, the current pattern would likely forestall any development for about the next three months, i.e., any chance for an early season storm would not be very likely. Even a June storm seems uncertain at the moment - but we'll keep an eye on the basin - just in case something changes.
Cheers,
ED
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
SST Forecast
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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