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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

Re: Circulation off NC Coast
Thu Apr 14 2005 05:41 PM

that's an occluded low that's getting some decent divergence aloft from the cold-core upper low edging along to it's west and south. i can unequivocally state that it's cold here. the temperature struggled to around 60 here in columbia and never got out of the 50s east of here where the stratus layer held.
upper support for the low off the coast should break down and the modest convection near it's center should shear off and cease this evening. it will keep a good northeast surface flow over the atlantic seaboard, advecting cool air in for the next couple of days. highs are going to be stuck 5 to 10 below normal. we would get a freeze tonight, but the winds should stay up and keep the boundary layer well mixed. the growing season is on here, and a freeze wouldn't be much good.
elsewhere i've been watching the SOI index hang near neutral to weak/warm for the last month or so. it took a nosedive yesterday and is back down where it spent much of february. the warm pocket that the february spell generated is surfacing near the galapagos right now and should put those la nina thoughts to sleep for another couple of months. if we go through another SOI spell in late april like we did late february, it'll be time to start talking el nino again.
put menacingly, the pacific is acting pretty much like it did last year. i wouldn't draw any conclusions from that just yet about the summertime circulation, but a reasonable bet would be that hurricane activity in the north atlantic will mimic last year in terms of quantity.
HF 2335z14april

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Not Much Change	Ed Dunham	Thu Apr 14 2005 05:41 PM
Re: Not Much Change	Cycloneye11	Mon Mar 21 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Not Much Change	LI Phil	Mon Mar 21 2005 10:42 PM
Re: Not Much Change	Cycloneye11	Tue Mar 22 2005 05:59 AM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	danielw	Tue Mar 22 2005 08:45 PM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	Beaujolais	Wed Mar 23 2005 08:39 AM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	Lysis	Wed Mar 23 2005 01:28 PM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	MikeC	Wed Mar 23 2005 03:59 PM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	MoparMitch	Fri Mar 25 2005 09:57 AM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	Clark	Sat Mar 26 2005 02:49 AM
Re:Dr Gray's 2005 Forecast scheduled for Friday release	Storm Cooper	Sat Mar 26 2005 06:12 AM
Dr Gray speaks	Lysis	Sat Mar 26 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	B.C.Francis	Sat Mar 26 2005 11:34 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	Vero Beach	Thu Apr 14 2005 01:27 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	B.C.Francis	Thu Apr 14 2005 09:36 AM
Circulation off NC Coast	Cycloneye11	Thu Apr 14 2005 04:18 PM
Re: Circulation off NC Coast	James88	Thu Apr 14 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Circulation off NC Coast	HanKFranK	Thu Apr 14 2005 05:41 PM
Re: Circulation off NC Coast	Lysis	Thu Apr 14 2005 06:31 PM
Re: Circulation off NC Coast	B.C.Francis	Thu Apr 14 2005 04:40 PM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	danielw	Sun Mar 27 2005 12:15 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	B.C.Francis	Sun Mar 27 2005 11:06 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	javlin	Thu Mar 31 2005 06:27 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	B.C.Francis	Thu Mar 31 2005 09:47 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	Lysis	Thu Mar 31 2005 07:15 PM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	HanKFranK	Thu Mar 31 2005 07:53 PM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	Heather	Thu Mar 31 2005 08:17 PM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	Clark	Sun Apr 03 2005 12:08 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	HanKFranK	Sun Apr 03 2005 01:54 AM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	B.C.Francis	Fri Apr 01 2005 09:02 AM
Circulation in NW carib	MapMaster	Sat Apr 02 2005 09:38 AM
Re: Circulation in NW carib	east coast	Thu Apr 14 2005 01:19 AM
Re: Circulation in NW carib	B.C.Francis	Sat Apr 02 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Circulation in NW carib	Lysis	Sat Apr 02 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Circulation in NW carib	B.C.Francis	Sat Apr 02 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Dr Gray speaks	Cycloneye11	Sun Mar 27 2005 07:03 AM
Re:SST's 3.4 Nino	javlin	Thu Mar 17 2005 09:59 PM
Re: Not Much Change	Steve hirsch.	Thu Mar 17 2005 08:15 AM
Re: Not Much Change	javlin	Thu Mar 17 2005 10:08 PM
Off S. America	MapMaster	Thu Mar 17 2005 12:41 PM
Re: Off S. America	Beaujolais	Thu Mar 17 2005 01:48 PM
Re: EPAC Disturbance	MapMaster	Thu Mar 10 2005 12:00 PM
Re: EPAC Disturbance	LI Phil	Sun Mar 13 2005 01:52 PM
Re: Not Much Change	Storm Cooper	Wed Mar 09 2005 08:18 PM

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