i'm at home attm so i don't have proper access to all li hurricane data...i will post more on this later this afternoon...but as an fyi, and to further confrim keith's response, our water temps, even at peak in early/mid september, cannot support greater than a cat iv...that being said, li has never ever seen anything stronger than a cat iii...and that would be the 1938 li express...which was moving at 70 mph , the fastest ever forward moving hurricane...i iwill shoot you a link to the suny stony brook study on this when i get back to the office, which includes an awesome storm surge projection graphic
we do occasionally see cat i's and some rare cat ii's...
gloria '85 was our last cane
floyd '99 (i met cantore at point lookout during this one) was our last close brush
charley '04 did give us ts winds and the remnants of ivan, also '04, were no picnic either
bob '91 did a detour off the coast of montauk was a bad one, but spared us...
as far as probabilities...they are the same every year...slim to none...we're due for a cane about every 25 years but we could get two in one year and then none for 50 years
i'll do a detailed analysis of current conditions at some point in the next month which will analyze factors which could lead to a greater potential for landfall up in our area...
i'll also give you a "doomsday" scenario for nyc/li in which a cat ii or iii can sneak into ny harbor and flood the subways and close the bridges...
that's all for now...more when i get back to the office
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 62646
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center