Quote: gfs has a storm blowing up on the subtropical jet near florida late in the week, then being blocked by a high in the northeast and stalling for a couple of days off the east coast. it's a noreaster that can't find it's way north, essentially. the upper flow around the subtropical jet, save in the shelter zone under the system's associated upper low, won't let anything develop. just a coastal low.
gfs has a large area of storminess in the caribbean next week--late in the week a low emerges from the mess and rides across cuba and the bahamas, then phases in with an upper trough in the western atlantic. tropical source region for sure. it's too early, but the models are giving us our first chances to wave monger for 2005. in four weeks or so features of the same ilk will have more significant chances of becoming something. HF 1544z02may
HF, looks like the GFS got the want-to-be Noreaster right. You guys getting a heavy rain for the second or third day in a row. If the GFS was this good with the tropical systems, forecasting landfall locations would be a lot easier. I wonder if the extra data that they feed into the models during Hurricane season is part of what is throwing the model forecasts off. Just an observation from the back row.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 61657
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center