the SSTs in the gulf are cooler than normal in most places. the warm patch near the mouth of the mississippi probably has something to do with discharge into the gulf.. not sure of that. but in general the gulf isn't running warm at all. right now the tropics of the north atlantic and the east atlantic near the canaries are running warm.. much of the northwest atlantic (esp. the shelf waters) and gulf are running cool. these areas are likely to warm significantly as summer comes on, though. noteworthy fact that the immediate coastal waters on much of the atlantic seaboard (esp. ne-fl to hatteras) have been running cooler than normal in recent summers. as for miami ft lauderdale being at greater risk.. they are always at higher statistical risk than much of the rest of the u.s. coast.. that's a given. is it likely they will be singled out this year? probably not. the coastal storm from late last week is completely occluded and is moving SE near bermuda right now. the spotty convection near the core is gone, but it is rotating around the tail of the larger upper trough that it earlier tracked into. as secluded as it has become, convection redeveloping near the center would likely indicate subtropical transition.. not happening right now, but an slim possibility exists (it wasn't supposed to drift as far south as it has). models that were earlier creating mess in the caribbean and tracking it north/northeastward into the western atlantic still making the same suggestion. gfs has a storm over the weekend/early next week that looks very interesting... behavior looks like a variation of the systems the model has been mumbling about for about a week now. watch the caribbean late this week, it may try to cough something up like it did last year. we came very close to getting a may storm in 2004, this year might end up giving us something similar to watch. HF 1615z10may
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