the globals right now have an axis of disturbed weather extending ene from honduras to east of bermuda, and are developing low pressure going into the weekend and next week at various places along the axis. if evolution is to take place over the next 3-4 days, it would have to be deep in the caribbean for any system to get past minimal storm intensity--shear gradient to the north will be sharp--if a system were to start away from it the effect would be enhanced outflow for a while, nearby the effect would be strong sw shear and rapid NE movement. the runs at 00z are favoring a system closer to the islands jetting rapidly ENE. mentioning the upcoming feature of interest a few days ago panned out fairly well, so i'll roll with it and add that gfs wants to create another system out past 10 days in the western caribbean.. or at least it has the last couple of runs. the system in this later case moves more poleward. of course getting two tropical systems in may is completely outlandish and i'd still hesitate to say either has much chance to develop from this juncture. HF 0646z12may
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