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News Talkback >> 2005 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast
      Fri May 13 2005 09:27 AM

Very little change from my Initial Outlook posted on January15th. Easterly waves exiting the west coast of Africa have started a little sooner this year and the cooler SSTs along the southeast coast (and a few areas of the Gulf) suggest that the mid Atlantic ridge will be at least as strong as it was last season. Both of these factors would imply an active Cape Verde season. No significant overall pattern change from the 2004 season. Primary threat areas remain unchanged and include the entire Texas/Louisiana coast, south Florida, and the eastern Carolina coasts...and the eastern Caribbean islands. No change in my analog years, and only a minor adjustment to 12/7/3 in my seasonal forecast.

Now its your turn to provide or adjust your seasonal forecast. If you've already made your forecast on the Main Page, please repeat your numbers on this thread - it makes my job of end-of-season analysis a little easier if all of the forecasts are in the same place.

Here are the groundrules:
1. Only forecasts from registered Users will be tallied.
2. You must make your forecast before June 1st - any adjustments made after May 31st will be ignored.
3. You can provide rationale for your forecast if you wish, but it is not a requirement to do so.
4. Use a 'reply' to this post to make your forecast.

There is also another 'educated guess' activity that we have fun with. Normally we attempt to predict the date of the first 'named' storm, but this year I'm going to change it a little and ask you to guess at the date of the first named 'hurricane' of the season in the Atlantic basin (includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea). The same rules apply as stated above. I've already got a date in mind (got very lucky with this last year - and don't expect to do as well this year), but I'm going to hold off on posting my date for awhile.

Finally, there is an Area of Interest in the SW Caribbean Sea north of Panama. Nocturnal convection has again flared up in this area. Low-level convergence coupled with divergence aloft is centered near 12N 81W at 12Z today - with little movement. SSTs are at 28.5C with light westerly shear that rapidly strengthens to the north of the strong convection. I do not anticipate any significant development of this system.

Good Luck with your forecasts!
Cheers,
ED

Added on 05/23: First hurricane on 07/18 (very low confidence in the date this year).

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 23 2005 06:07 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri May 13 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 29 2005 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast B.C.Francis   Mon May 30 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Rob_M   Mon May 30 2005 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast HanKFranK   Thu Jul 07 2005 12:07 AM
. * * First Hurricane of the Season Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 07 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: First Hurricane of the Season Keith234   Fri Jul 08 2005 08:08 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Terra   Sun May 29 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast ftlaudbob   Mon May 30 2005 09:49 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Storm Cooper   Sun May 29 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast sthorne   Tue May 17 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast LI Phil   Wed May 18 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Lysis   Wed May 18 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast FlaMommy   Wed May 18 2005 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Keith234   Mon May 16 2005 08:13 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast vbhoutex   Fri May 27 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast LI Phil   Mon May 16 2005 08:18 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast FlaMommy   Mon May 16 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast B.C.Francis   Tue May 17 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast FlaMommy   Tue May 17 2005 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast B.C.Francis   Tue May 17 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast LI Phil   Tue May 17 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast B.C.Francis   Tue May 17 2005 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Storm Hunter   Tue May 17 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast hurricane_run   Tue May 17 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Bloodstar   Tue May 17 2005 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast trinibaje   Tue May 17 2005 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast FlaMommy   Tue May 17 2005 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast rmbjoe1954   Mon May 16 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Liz   Mon May 16 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Joe   Mon May 16 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Clark   Sun May 15 2005 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Doombot!   Sat May 14 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Storm Hunter   Sun May 15 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast KN4LF   Fri May 13 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast HanKFranK   Fri May 13 2005 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Heather   Fri May 13 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast DMFischer   Fri May 13 2005 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast rmbjoe1954   Fri May 13 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast Cycloneye11   Fri May 13 2005 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Final 2005 Seasonal Forecast B.C.Francis   Fri May 13 2005 12:21 PM

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