i think that 91L stays more or less stationary and convection continues to flare at about the sam pace for the next 24 hrs or so. more wave energy is sliding in from the east late tomorrow, and about then the system could make another lunge at development. there seemed to be more diffluence over the area earlier.. it appears to have shifted east along the jet (might be an exit region or something). provided that the flare of convection upstream along the jet (south of d.r.) doesn't steal 91Ls fire, there may be some real organization to the thing by late sunday/monday. whether it's drifting up to near jamaica by then is a whole other issue. there's a decent surface trough and what looks like a meso low at the mid levels, but the focus for lowering pressure i'm thinking will stay just along the rim of the subtropical jet.. it should only migrate north as the jet does. anyhow, just my take. now i need to go look at some model runs to see if my ideas are totally bonkers. HF 2332z13may
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