Phil -- that's because they are all using the NHC guidance to create those maps, which still only calls for a 30kt depression once it enters our basin.
At 11pm, TD-1E was upgraded to Adrian, the first named storm of the season. During the evening, the convective pattern near the center waned before developing into a small CDO-type feature. This bodes well for future organization. Given about another 18-24hr to organize, I do believe we'll have a hurricane on our hands. NHC's hands are tied because this is such a rare event that they can't call for something drastic; but, the ingredients are there to certainly support a hurricane. No matter the intensity, the primary concern is going to be rainfall, particularly on the south side of those mountains to the east of where the storm tracks. Probably not Mitch-type destruction, as the storm isn't as strong and is moving faster, but very substantial rainfall amounts will not be out of the question.
The GFDL has backed off on the extreme intensity prediction of 125kt before, down to 105kt. That is probably the upper bound of what we could see with this storm; time is not on its side for anything more. Something more along the lines of 75-90kt is more likely, again with landfall in 2-3 days. After that, it's still anyone's guess. How fast the system moves across land and what path it takes will go a long way to determining how well it survives into the Caribbean, what path it takes in our basin, and how much reintensification -- if any -- it may undergo. Still anyone's guess at this point, but those in the Caymans, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas need to watch this one...just in case.
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