this could easily go into the hurricane history forum, but i'll weight it with some current obs so it fits here... if you want to see an example of a basin-crosser of the variety adrian may pull, check the track maps from 1949. different season and scenario, but that was a mean hurricane that got the texas coast in early october, after forming east of where adrian originated. the 1961 example of hattie-simone-inga was already given on the last thread. in 1989 a june hurricane named cosme crossed and was reclassified allison... also a bother for texas. the closest we've come since then was rick in november 1997 trying to cross over--more eastward trajectory than the others, further south also--more in line with what we've got now. didn't exactly make it, and adrian may do something similar... though rick was under increasing shear at landfall and adrian will probably have better synoptic conditions at landfall.. slightly. the intensity issue will be decided on thursday when the storm comes ashore. the forecast track is into el salvador right now.. that'll be a first; can't find anything close in the historic database. clark pointed out the cdo present this evening. the storm structure is such that it can intensify steadily. don't be surprised if adrian is a hurricane late tomorrow. the deeper the storm becomes the faster it will move, so there is a logical limit to how strong it becomes. a further south landfall gives it a slightly higher chance of regeneration.. though more land will have to be crossed, shear will not be as big an issue (still an issue though). also, SOI is very negative, so the backing in the deep tropics trailing the storm will lead to a strong convergence line in central america and the sw caribbean.. more rain, and it will also have to be watched for more development... hypothetically. the center could also reform in this fashion if it weakens too much over land. same vorticity envelope, so i'm iffy on the idea, but there is a precedent (iris to manuel in 2001). i'm also thinking that the generated ridging and outflow enhancement of nearby upper features is probably a rogue factor the models can't predict very well. hurricane detritus can cause indirect effects and subsequent development in this fashion. it maybe isn't showing in the modeling just yet. due to the strong westerly backing and chaotic nature of adrian's sphere of influence, i'd keep an eyeball on the region as we go into next week. HF 0537z18may
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 19309
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center