Adrian looks to be in the process of developing at least a ragged eye-like feature, particularly evident on the visible satellite imagery over the past couple of hours. It's not there on IR or WV yet due to some high cirrus enhancing moisture & resulting on some cold cloud tops. Winds as of 2p have been bumped to 60mph, and the storm is well on its way to hurricane status. Look for TS warnings and hurricane watches to go up at 5pm, with hurricane warnings soon to follow. SSTs begin to drop off slightly here, remain between 29-30 C until landfall, but the biggest decrease is felt below the surface, where the depth of the warm water isn't as great to the east. With Adrian, however, it should be moving fast enough to keep this from being an inhibiting factor. The only inhibiting factor for decent intensification from here on out is dry air entrainment, this morning's minor hiccup not withstanding. A 75-90kt hurricane, as mentioned previously, is looking likely at landfall, though rainfall is still going to be the primary impact of the storm.
The system has begun to accelerate to the north and east in response to the digging trough over Mexico and the increased vertical development of the storm. At this clip, the storm should make landfall along the eastern El Salvador coast in about 2 days, give or take. From there, continued acceleration towards the north and east is likely. The storm won't be nearly as strong as Mitch (98), but nor will it feel the negative effects of land nearly as long either, meaning it probably has about the same chance of redevelopment in the Caribbean. Wherever the storm goes in our basin, shear is going to be pretty high on the north side of the storm, inhibiting any redevelopment. It is not out of the realm of possibility, however, to see a weak TS reform in the NW Caribbean, as the models may underdo the environmental modification of the ridge by the outflow from Adrian. A continued NE movement, perhaps more slowly than before initial landfall, is the most likely bet for whatever is left of the storm. There is good agreement amongst the models on this, but trying to use them to call for redevelopment is a fool's errand, as they hardly capture the storm as it is. GFDL, IMO, is too intense on the storm by landfall and too intense with development, to boot.
Still one to watch, but hopefully those in central America are prepared for what's to come. It's not going to be pretty.
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