Interesting to note: the storm thus far has moved further to the east than the NHC and models have called for thus far, rather than moving NE. Flow to the north of the storm is more zonal than expected, suggesting the trough hasn't amplified the flow to the point of being able to draw the storm towards the north. It should begin to gain latitude, but I'm not convinced that the storm comes in as far north as the models and the NHC brings it as of yet.
Flow onto the W. coast of the U.S. is being shunted north and south in a diffluent pattern over the Rockies, helping to push the storm towards the east, but it's not doing a lot to amplify the flow pattern over the region. The trough off of the east coast of the U.S. is taking its time in building southward as well, meaning there is less of an influence upon the storm to go poleward. In fact, over the past day or so, the flow has become less amplified across the western Caribbean, and there doesn't appear to be a lot in the flow pattern to change things, either, meaning either a shortwave trough is going to come out of the woodwork and push the storm north...or it's not going to go north. Good for us, bad for the central Caribbean.
Those in Nicaragua need to watch this storm, for if things hold, Adrian may make in impact in eastern El Salvador and northern Nicaragua moreso than western El Salvador. I hinted at this in my previous update, but feel a bit more confident about it now. An eventual track along the Honduran/Nicaraguan border into the NW Caribbean is possible, keeping the storm over land a bit longer but perhaps avoiding some of the taller mountain peaks. From there, whatever is left of the storm may begin to travel a bit further north, as the predominant low-level flow is directed that way, but keeping the Caymans, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola under the gun for something.
Will be watching this for some time to come, but need to get back to work.
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