i was thinking that banding eye earlier signified a good bit more strengthening than has really taken place. jumped the gun some.. the 'eye' has filled and the cdo definition is ragged right now. it might be a diurnal minumum, or choking on subsidence or something. the western outflow is more restricted than yesterday, but the poleward outflow seems much enhanced. clark's mention of the right-of-forecast track does present the interesting case that the storm will keep out of the serious shear and decelerate more as it crosses.. and not take the quick ENE track presented in the official. if it goes left, probably won't have any chance of recovery once it goes feet dry. not much confidence in either scenario. the models are still generating weak lows north of the greater antilles today, and there's still a lot of disturbed weather in the central caribbean and points north and northeast. diffluence around upper troughs and splits is generating a couple of surface troughs near 23/70 and 25/45. somewhere in the middle gfs has an interesting low. none of these are particularly convincing when it comes to development, though. convection in the caribbean continues, but none of the mccs persist long enough to get the 'siphon' going at the surface, as has been happening for days. so anyhow, it's probably just adrian.. but adrian is interesting enough. HF 2353z18may
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 19299
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center