Quote: ftlaudbob: any page with weather maps that cover the region or upper air charts... or model runs to prog it out for the next few weeks. you pretty much just look for it. i can tell you that right now it essentially isn't there.. deep layer westerly flow over much of the atlantic basin is anomalously far to the south (thus we have a pacific storm coming backwards toward central america). everybody: nowhere near as gung-ho as earlier. javlin correctly surmised yesterday evening that the n-s elongation of the system meant that adrian was finally going to take a more poleward path; and it has. the storm looks lined to landfall closer to the guatemala/el salvador border now... or at least northern el salvador. the small cdo has an intermittent eye feature.. the storm may be a bit stronger than the official statements say... but it has hardly strengthened since yesterday morning. it's in a mild-moderate shear environment now, and probably won't strengthen much more. so much for the cat 2/3 ideas. minimal 1 maaaaybe. it's survival is also iffier, because the storm is very small and going to landfall in a sheared environment. i don't expect it to survive crossing land anymore. there are still minor concerns with a center redeveloping to the se lower in the caribbean or a festering system north of the islands getting a brief window as the subtropical jet wends about. but tropical activity will more then likely end for the near future when/if adrian loses its identity tonight. they just bumped the winds up a notch in the intermittent advisory. maybe there will be a slight forced strengthening as the storm hits parallel to the coast (an effect bastardi used to point out). and just maybe recon will find slightly stronger winds. but it looks like adrian will be mercifully weak compared to what was being viewed as possible just yesterday. HF 1606z19may
Sure whole lot of maybe's when the hurricane is 6 hours till' landfall... Anyway, a 500 mb ridge is lifting to the north of the storm, allowing it to push more north then forecasted. This combined with the shortwave energy diving into the gulf will spell SHEAR for the remnants of Adrian, once in the Atlantic. The enviorinment has now become unfavorable for decent strengthenening, there could be though a increase in 10 15 kts before landfall with the sun at it's maximum, and the landfalling effect that HF pointed out. In other terms, the storm is past it's prime, and there is a very minute chance the remnants of Adrian will regenerate once in the Atlantic...
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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