Adrian finally felt the impact of the trough and has started to take go more poleward (the previous N-S elongation comment was spot on). El Salvador still looks like a good bet for landfall; exactly where is not the key, however, it's areas to the east of the storm. There appears to be a bit too much shear in the region for much more strengthening, but the current appearance of the storm looks to be a bit like Hurricane Earl in 1998 (Atlantic basin). The trailing convective bands developing to the east of the storm hints at massive rainfall totals to come; it may also hint at a very early start to the extratropical transition process, but I'm not buying that yet.
As for redevelopment in the Atlantic...we will see. Landfall in Cent. Amer. is likely about 18-24hr from now, with passage from there into the Caribbean as, well, something. How much of something remains to be determined. If it survives the journey relatively intact, it'll likely weaken from there on out (if not become extratropical); if it doesn't, the remnants may just stick around for awhile under weak low-level flow. Like HF mentioned, the possibility for it to deviate from the projected course or become decoupled from the mid-level circulation is there...though also as he mentioned, safest bet is to stick with the forecast.
Rainfall, as noted last night and afternoon, is the biggest concern with this storm. Landfall in about 18hr with an intensity of 75kt or so at its peak somewhere along the El Salvador coast is the likely evolution over the next day or so. From there on out...we'll see.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 48849
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center