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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
      Wed Jun 01 2005 03:14 PM

I wouldn't say "and many others." He's the only guy quoted in the article on that, which you can find in the Orlando Sentinel (and probably the South Fl. Sun-Sentinel, too) today.

What they are trying to get at is the position of the subtropical jet -- and by correlation, El Nino/La Nina events. Disturbances in the subtropical jet can bring a lot of rainfall to wherever they pass over; during an El Nino year, the subtropical jet is generally further south than normal & often over the Florida peninsula, resulting in above average rainfall in S. Florida. Thus, low rainfall --> La Nina events --> more Atlantic activity --> greater chance of a landfall (and conversely, high rainfall --> El Nino events --> less Atlantic activity -- > less chance of a landfall).

Doesn't always work that way, though. Andrew occured during an El Nino year, 1992. So did the storm in 1965 that they reference. Another year referenced, 1935, was a neutral ENSO year. South Florida, over the past 50-75 years, has only seen a few landfalling major hurricanes, not enough to make the statistics significant. Most of them were in the 1960s, and only Betsy in 1965 was a "direct hit."

Furthermore, rainfall this time of year in S. Florida can be influenced by any number of factors: midlatitude systems, disturbances in the subtropical jet, tropical waves, sea breeze -- and so on. It only takes one system at either end of the month to bring about a lot of rainfall. Thus, the anecdotal evidence they present doesn't have much more merit than saying that extremely dry months brought about a landfall in S. Florida. I will give them that: the other years I found with major hurricanes in S. Florida (1945, 1960, 1964) also had rainfall < 5" in May.

Otherwise, there is no common thread amongst the dry months/years that makes physical sense, particularly in terms of the ENSO cycle (the single biggest modulator of tropical activity), to help logically explain the connection. There have been other dry months that have not seen tropical activity, and many wet months that did. Extending it to Central Florida doesn't help much, either: landfalls as a major storm in Cent. FL are pretty rare, particularly along the east coast.

What can you draw from this? Two things...
1) Landfalls can occur without any precedent. This is the "it only takes one" principle. It has little to nothing to do with climate patterns affecting solely Miami/Dade County.
2) The media will take a few quotes that make sense to most of the public to sensationalize a story, particularly when it relates to the start of a new hurricane season (after one that was pretty memorable in this state).

It's an interesting connection, but I'd put pretty little weight in the story...none if I were outside Miami.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today MikeCAdministrator Wed Jun 01 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Toto   Sun Jun 05 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today GuppieGrouper   Mon Jun 06 2005 06:11 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tornado00   Mon Jun 06 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Wingman51   Mon Jun 06 2005 12:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Mon Jun 06 2005 12:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Wingman51   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:01 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today mysticalmooons   Mon Jun 06 2005 01:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Mon Jun 06 2005 02:11 PM
. * * Interesting Colleen A.   Mon Jun 06 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Interesting rmbjoe1954   Mon Jun 06 2005 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Ryan   Mon Jun 06 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Londovir   Sat Jun 04 2005 02:29 AM
. * * NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Frank P   Sat Jun 04 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Cycloneye11   Sat Jun 04 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Frank P   Sat Jun 04 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Kandis McClung   Sat Jun 04 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Keith234   Sat Jun 04 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: NDBC has some new bouys, here's your link Heather   Sun Jun 05 2005 01:12 PM
. * * near 42506 mikeG   Sun Jun 05 2005 01:44 PM
. * * Re: near 42506 stormchazer   Sun Jun 05 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: near 42506 GuppieGrouper   Sun Jun 05 2005 04:47 PM
. * * Trouble next weekend? Rob_M   Sun Jun 05 2005 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Trouble next weekend? Storm Cooper   Sun Jun 05 2005 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Trouble next weekend? Clark   Sun Jun 05 2005 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Trouble next weekend? HanKFranK   Sun Jun 05 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Domino   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:53 PM
. * * New Feature: Met Blogs LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 11:49 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tornado00   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:09 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:18 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Keith234   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Keith234   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today h2ocean   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:01 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today GuppieGrouper   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today doug   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Bloodstar   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:31 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ftlaudbob   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:14 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Steve hirschb.   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:25 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Fletch   Wed Jun 01 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Heather   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:10 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Bermuda High-Basic Explanation LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Experts=Grain of Salt wxman007   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Terra   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Clark   Wed Jun 01 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Any Chances Cocoa Beach   Thu Jun 02 2005 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Any Chances tpratch   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Any Chances Steve hirschb.   Thu Jun 02 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Any Chances Clark   Thu Jun 02 2005 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Any Chances Steve hirschb.   Fri Jun 03 2005 07:56 AM
. * * Interesting Flareup LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Thu Jun 02 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup HanKFranK   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup doug   Fri Jun 03 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup MissBecky   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:33 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup James88   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Rich B   Fri Jun 03 2005 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup HanKFranK   Fri Jun 03 2005 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Lysis   Fri Jun 03 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup LI Phil   Fri Jun 03 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup B.C.Francis   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup hockeyucf   Fri Jun 03 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup Clark   Fri Jun 03 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Flareup B.C.Francis   Fri Jun 03 2005 03:01 PM
. * * JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:42 PM
. * * Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET wxman007   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:51 PM
. * * Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET LI Phil   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: JK on Barometer Bob's Show TONIGHT 8:30 ET Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 02 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Picture of the Day Cocoa Beach   Thu Jun 02 2005 08:19 AM
. * * Very busy for June 1 MapMaster   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Very busy for June 1 dem05   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Experts=Grain of Salt Kevin   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:23 PM
. * * Jim Williams' Show LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Lysis   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today tpratch   Wed Jun 01 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Bloodstar   Wed Jun 01 2005 02:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today B.C.Francis   Wed Jun 01 2005 06:54 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today LI Phil   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today ZooKeeper   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:51 AM
. * * well ahead HanKFranK   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: well ahead rmbjoe1954   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: well ahead Steve hirschb.   Wed Jun 01 2005 12:40 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Frank P   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:28 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Jun 04 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today dem05   Sat Jun 04 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Heather   Wed Jun 01 2005 07:55 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today AgentB   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:14 PM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Cycloneye11   Wed Jun 01 2005 08:41 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today Artsy Fartsy   Wed Jun 01 2005 09:12 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today vvvteddybearvvv   Wed Jun 01 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today James88   Wed Jun 01 2005 05:29 AM

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