I'm inclined to agree with you today. I took a long look at the upper air environment, and I don't see the ridge building in to the SE USA just yet. The 500 mb UAA at 12Z showed no height rises at all. Looking at the satellite; which chasing all those small vortices can drive you to drink; there are a few of them embedded in the overall circulation. I do note the shear is lessening as clouds are tending more to the W and SW around the low level center, but I did find one ominous sign at that's NOAA buoy 42003, just to the NW of the center. Pressure as dropped rather rapidly to 999 mbs now, but a closer look at visible satellite shows a small vorticy in the vicinty and the buoy is indicating an E; not NE winds; maybe a bubble ridge or wake from a near by thunderstorm; difficult to say at the moment. Disjiointed systems can become hurricanes, but minimal. The UL trough is still entraining dry air into her and there is considerable subsidence to her west, though the winds do appear to be backening; which will help in sustaining some strengthening if they continue to backen as she moves N. I think if Arlene can get her center up under the convection; she's in business, o/w CAT1 is plausible. 10/2023Z
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