1) La Nina is a very dry pattern for Florida. The last well-defined La Nina event was coincident with the two years of drought and summertime fires across Florida in 1998 and 1999. El Nino events tend to be a bit wetter, but La Nina events are very dry through the first half of the summer.
2) There's still no circulation associated with 92L, at least not on the NW side of Jamaica. This evening's QuikSCAT pass showed only straight-line winds out of the east-southeast across the region. There is a weak area of low pressure near 14.5 N, 78 W, but that is well south of Jamaica and well-removed from any convection. It's more likely a representation of the persistent area of low pressure across the region over the past couple-few weeks than anything else.
3) While SST anomalies are useful in looking at ENSO events, you have to look below the surface and at other parameters as well. While I don't have the complete report to post, the ENSO diagnostic center at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that there are still a combination of El Nino and neutral signals out there, with the persistence of the neutral signals likely signifying the maintenance of neutral ENSO conditions for the foreseeable future. It's been a weird pattern this year in regards to the EPac SST anomalies, but beyond that, the other signals suggest El Nino or neutrality.
With regards to 92L, there's still a sizeable upper-level low just west of the storm, with shear tendencies increasing in that region. The convection is almost solely a result on strong divergence aloft over the region forced by the upper low to its west. There is some low-level vorticity there, hinting that something might work its way down to the surface, but nothing yet. FSU MM5 hints at a weak low moving into the NW Caribbean, but does nothing with it; the development towards its north and east appears to be mostly unrelated. The 18Z run of the GFS is the only one out there that really does a lot with this system, and while it cannot be discounted, I wonder if they've tried changing the tropical physics with the model around this year, since it's tried developing a lot of things lately...correctly and incorrectly. But that's just me thinking out loud.
All in all -- a nice impressive bout of convection associated with 92L, likely to bring a lot of rain to Jamaica and Hispaniola, but not a tropical cyclone.
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