I can do a water vapor loop better than so many but I am braindead when it comes to remembering my password for this site (and yes I asked for it to be sent to me... sorry Hurric.. I'm trying)
Anyway...excellent thoughts Steve and someone else a while back on the loops... very interesting set up..in some way Carib storms are more interesting with more possibilities than the usual Cape Verde recurvature questions.
So... here are my thoughts.. and an interesting webcan on Bear Cut that was made by a storm in 1835 with a similar path as Isidore..
1 Things are about to change.. there is banding and signs of NNW movement though granted this storm stair steps everywhere..
2 Point at which the trof is digging or will soon dig is equal distance with the ULL that has pulled west. Combined with the digging trough behind it which is almost at the same latitude now and still digging as weak Isidore has it caught in the flow.. come on..it is almost stalled which means there are forces battling for its attention. The trough isn't going to stop digging anytime today whereas the ULL is moving further out of the picture.. Those 3 things add up to the storm beginning to move NNW (being conservative here)as a building storm and hitting Cuba dead on as a hurricane or near hurricane strength.
3 If the storm had moved west then there would be more concern for it to bomb ala Gilbert type of storm but on the present path closer to the Cuban coast there will be interaction between Jamaica and Cuba's more moutainous terrain on its NE-N side and that will inhibit it from exploding as some had predicted.
4 Remember earliest runs of this storm because it has followed the early model runs for when it was down in Trinidad doing the Limbo dance
5 Motion with this storm has been a jog more west..than a build up of convection to the NE and then that convection wraps to the north around the cdo which ends up with a smoothed out motion of NW
6 I said Mobile should watch yesterday partly in jest and partly for real because if it were to be pulled into the Gulf I don't see it moving as far west as models today indicated and any time you have a Carib hurricane to your south you SHOULD be watching.
We all should be watching.
Lastly.. I find sometimes storms follow the original models more closely in retrospect than the in between pulls L and R of the track..
Anyone see the AVN today.. usually would count it out but find it possible.
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