First of all, I'd like to tell you all that you need to probably take the models as a very, very fine grain of salt at this point. I have noticed that some models force the storm westward with no ridge above it at all...that's just plain whacked. Doesn't happen too often.
Another thing I urge my fellow Floridians to look at is climatology. How many storms in the past have missed troughs at this time in September while in the GOMEX? Not too many, if any at all. Climatology simply shows that this storm will, in the end, effect Florida. Not wishcasting here, just giving the pure facts. *IF*, and I mean *IF* the trough picks this storm up, it will likely make landfall in the Big Bend area. Subject to change, of course. But given the pretty large size of this storm Central Florida would likely get some hurricane conditions.
If this storm intensifies to a major hurricane...and it likely will...it should move north at 5-10 mph. This brings the possibility of this storm moving north and meeting the trough will no problem. Once again, just another scenario.
My final word: It still looks to me like Florida is the main threat for Florida. Although the chances are somewhat high along the northern GOMEX, the storm should clear just to the east of here. It is going to be a stomach-churning weekend here, but in the end, I think Isidore will be a Florida storm.
Let's see what happens...pressures also starting to fall. Also, any NNW movement could shift the track to the right. I feel that as Isidore begins to develop an eye tomorrow, there will be flucuations to the NNW due to wobbling, common in weak hurricanes. Watch for that.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 23686
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center