for whatever it is worth...IMHO the sat pics confirm a path slightly right of the NW diection and if this does not deviate the storm should impact Cuba east of the Cayman...but we all know how that goes...the environment ahead seems to suggest, at least for now, that upper steering is predominantly from south to north, at least that is the direction the high clouds over extreme western Cuba seem to be blowing...the low level SE fetch around the ridge is supposed to be the dominant steering mechanism for now, but the more northerly movement than the initialization predicted may be because the storm is feeling that S to N upper air push...have to see if that backs off too in the same way the upper low did as that may be related to that feature as well. As I looked at all the models, the ones that have the storm move the quickest take it into west Florida...the others hold it back into the central gulf for a couple of extra days and the it is pushed back NE...only one throws it west into Mexico... the forward motion is fairly deliberate now which favors no quick (72hrs) landfall in US. EDS.
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