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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
td 3 structure, the playa
      Mon Jul 04 2005 11:43 AM

my best guess on t.d. 3 is that the strongest rotation at the low levels will shift to the northern part of the elongated circulation... not an uncommon occurence. the recon this afternoon will probably find that and the forecast track will shift to the right. all of that convection that is moving north over the gulf is probably just an associated disturbance (remember yesterday and the day before a large mass of convection was flaring around jamaica... probably just a weak disturbance that brushed by behind t.d. 3, caught in the deep layer flow. the forecast intensity i'll be ready to nail down this afternoon when recon gets in.. dependent on what kind of center they fix. if 3 has a disorganized core, a fight amongst mini-centers or that sort of thing.. then the globals will prove right and cindy will be weak and move more to the west. if cindy gets reorganized quickly and takes advantage of the very supportive conditions it will encounter for the next 48 hrs.. it will easily come in as a solid hurricane.... probably the middle louisiana coast.
steve-o's playa has some very scary model support right now. it seems that the low pressure associated with it has cleared the venezuela coast, so that non-development option is out.. all we've got working for us to keep this thing from getting going is plain ol' sluggishness or non-development in spite of supportive conditions. if this thing develops in the next 48 hrs, expect trouble. a consensus of models is tracking this system to the eastern gulf by the weekend. it doesn't necessarily have to happen.. this thing could be an earl rather than an ivan.
HF 1642z04july

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 04 2005 11:46 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Mon Jul 04 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Here we go again lee haycook   Tue Jul 05 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Tropical Depression #3 Update danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update Old Sailor   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update Old Sailor   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update Old Sailor   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:52 AM
. * * td 3, company HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:33 AM
. * * TD 3 and company? danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 05:59 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Big tk   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:16 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? LadyStorm   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:30 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Big Tk   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:35 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Terra   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:32 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? doug   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:13 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:10 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:58 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? Rich B   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:11 AM
. * * td 3 structure, the playa HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:43 AM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa --lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Orlando, FL   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Gainesville, FL   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:21 PM
. * * trouble HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:17 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa MissBecky   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:31 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Tazmanian93   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:50 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:52 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa doug   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:24 PM
. * * T.D 3 becoming Cindy... Keith234   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:46 PM
. * * No Intensity Change wxman007   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:40 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Keith234   Mon Jul 04 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change javlin   Mon Jul 04 2005 05:11 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Keith234   Mon Jul 04 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Prospero   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:47 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Prospero   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:52 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change HurricaneChaser   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:05 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Old Sailor   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path RedingtonBeachGuy   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path StormHound   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Terra   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:56 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Main Page Updated Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated stormchazer   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated StormHound   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Main Page Updated HCW   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:17 PM
. * * New Advisories Trickling In.... wxman007   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:35 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... dem05   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... WeatherNLU00   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:45 PM
. * * New Thread danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 05 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: New Advisories Trickling In.... Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path Colleen A.   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path the watcher   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Possible T.D.4 path lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: No Intensity Change Rich B   Mon Jul 04 2005 06:39 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Doombot!   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa stormchazer   Mon Jul 04 2005 03:49 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Lysis   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa FlaMommy   Mon Jul 04 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: td 3 structure, the playa Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 01:19 PM
. * * same opinion HanKFranK   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:45 AM
. * * Re: same opinion Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: same opinion FlaMommy   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: same opinion Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: TD 3 and company? GuppieGrouper   Mon Jul 04 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update lawgator   Mon Jul 04 2005 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean ShanaTX   Sun Jul 03 2005 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean dem05   Sun Jul 03 2005 09:42 PM
. * * Eastern Caribbean and Lesser Antilles danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Eastern Caribbean and Lesser Antilles javlin   Sun Jul 03 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean KN4LF   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 03 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean the watcher   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Ryan   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Old Sailor   Sun Jul 03 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression #3 Forms in Extreme Western Caribbean Rich B   Sun Jul 03 2005 06:29 PM

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