In reply to: FYI,
All the local news stations are reporting that South FL..particularly SE FL...will not be impacted by the storm.
I don't doubt that at all....meaning I don't doubt the stations are discounting an impact there. I do however, look at the satellite and a map and see that 1) the storm is basically due south of Florida, 2) the storm has tracked more north than predicted earlier (whether due to reformation of the center or actual movement, the result is the same) and 3) as long as it is South of Florida, it *can* still reach any point in that state. The stations don't want to scare tourists away so must pick up on any 'good' news they can with regard to things that will impact tourist travel in that area.
A prudent person will take the models with a grain of salt, but like all of the places that provide/display the models output all say: "Do NOT use this information for planning purposes". It is input to your decision matrix, to be sure, but hurricanes can and do go where they want, not where a TV forecaster says it will or won't.
Be a skeptic, keep abreast of the available information and don't rule out *anything*.
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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