I am glad to see a 'real' meterologist actually take a stand in public I am also glad to see WHY you believe what you are (albeit tenatively) forecasting. Models are tools, nothing more and I am always distressed when TV (especially) forecasters mollify the public with platitudes based upon most often wrong models. I don't wish *any* storm knocking upon your door, but I am not willing to rule out any given city in Florida being affected by this storm just yet.
As you pointed out, and I observed earlier, this storm is north and east of almost all of the predictions by the NHC and the models, and can easily, given it's current S of Florida location, reach any part of this state. I stopped believing in wishcasting when I wished Camille would miss Biloxi....it did, but not by enough to prevent major damage....
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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