WNW movement continues. Storm was moving closer to due west between 2 and 8 am (if my memory is any good) this morning (1 up, 9 over). However from 8am to 11am, it's gone 2 up and 4 over. Someone said on the last thread that it's moving north. I think what you might be seeing is that some of the banding inside the CDO (the coldest cloud tops in fact) are rotating around the center. Set Goes 8 IR loop for 30, and you can see the gradual nudge WNW-NW. Storm looks almost stationary, so we'll have to wait for the Recon data - which should be fairly soon - for a true position. 12z models (which won't be posted for another 3-4 hours) are already 3 and 1/2 hours old. Without access to true real time modeling, in essence, we are looking back in time to see the future. I'd like to think that with Super Computers, we could do better. Anyway, possible stall out after crossing Cuba is possible. NHC, in their 11am discussion, discounts the effect of the trof getting established as the thing that takes the storm up and and out. Apparently GFDL, CMC and UKMET don't agree, but would you prefer to trust a forecaster (probably doctor or master degree), or a computer?
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 17152
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center