WNW movement continues. Storm was moving closer to due west between 2 and 8 am (if my memory is any good) this morning (1 up, 9 over). However from 8am to 11am, it's gone 2 up and 4 over. Someone said on the last thread that it's moving north. I think what you might be seeing is that some of the banding inside the CDO (the coldest cloud tops in fact) are rotating around the center. Set Goes 8 IR loop for 30, and you can see the gradual nudge WNW-NW. Storm looks almost stationary, so we'll have to wait for the Recon data - which should be fairly soon - for a true position. 12z models (which won't be posted for another 3-4 hours) are already 3 and 1/2 hours old. Without access to true real time modeling, in essence, we are looking back in time to see the future. I'd like to think that with Super Computers, we could do better. Anyway, possible stall out after crossing Cuba is possible. NHC, in their 11am discussion, discounts the effect of the trof getting established as the thing that takes the storm up and and out. Apparently GFDL, CMC and UKMET don't agree, but would you prefer to trust a forecaster (probably doctor or master degree), or a computer?
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