I don't see cat 5 either...I did say 3 earlier in the last thread, but now I think maybe not. However upper 2 (110mph) is probable...why?
The WV shows a clash in the upper atmosphere setting up at about 90w.. an upper low is evident in the GOM and the push from the west is seen trying to make headway to the east. This seems to be setting up a boundary for the current environment that is sustaining the storm at about 87-90w The UL is not moving over the entire course of the loop...the flow arond the upper low over the Yucatan is clearly South to North..and this will only be a negative on the strengthening of the storm once it gets into the GOM. Of course this could back off, but it does not look like it will. This is why, I think the models slow the storm and most keep it around 85w for a few days.
Eventually all this has to give...and depending on how strong the push from the west is and how quickly it begins to take over, will dictate where IZZY goes, and when...From past experience I think we can agree that IF Izzy does as now predicted, and moves slowly in the SE GOM until the rather strong trough coming down later to provide the imptus for the push east...once that push begins then IZZY move very quickly like 15-20 mph in what ever direction he goes......anybody N or even ENE of the storm when that happens remains vulnerable IMO...
I think it is entirely possible for all this to play itself out by Monday, and would be surprised if it is still around Tuesday or certainly Wednesday.
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