hmmm.. saw that new rating. anything higher usually gets scored a depression. i don't think nhc will go with it at 5pm, based on how they usually respond to formative systems that aren't within 200 miles of shore. as far as future track.. it may glide in low enough to rip itself up on the lesser antilles.. think that the weakness that the current digging trough off the canadian maritimes will add a northward component until it passes the longitude of it's wake. the subtropical ridge at 500mb is supposed to build east and bridge with the continent late next week, so if it's going north of the islands i reckon what should then be emily will start rocketed westward. interesting that the gfs has been showing an anticyclone aloft moving in tandem with 98L but no strengthening... did that with dennis and look what happened. this is really a guess, but i'm thinking this thing will be a threat to florida around july 18th. HF 2125z10july
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