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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: Dennis Aftermath
      Sun Jul 10 2005 09:54 PM

Big Red Machine, eyewall replacement cycles occur on a somewhat unpredictable basis -- we know that they occur, usually with some advance warning in the form of a secondary outer eyewall (whether observed by plane, satellite, or radar), but they can occur anywhere from every 12 or so hours to every 2 or so days, often time changing up in the middle of the game. They are most frequent with major hurricanes, though can be observed in weaker storms as well. There is still a lot that we don't know about them, however, and work is ongoing to develop a set of storms that underwent such cycles for future study towards improving our knowledge of them.

They oftentimes will mention eyewall replacement cycles in the discussions for such storms, but usually will only make minor modifications to the intensity forecast as a result of them if they think one is ongoing or about to occur. This is partially due to their unpredictable nature, such as how long it will last or where it will occur, as well as their nature in generally being temporary features leading to some reintensification afterward and the distance between intensity steps (12hr in the short term) in NHC advisories. For instance, I seem to recall an advisory on Dennis calling for a wekening to 115kt in 12hr from an initial intensity of 120kt, then back to 120kt 12hr later. That's about as far as they will go, though, given the current science and the need to stay towards the middle ground for the general public.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Dennis Aftermath MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 10 2005 09:54 PM
. * * NRL says Noname 5 AMK   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:23 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 BillD   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:33 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 SeeSaw99   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Clark   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 ohioaninmiss   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Keith234   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 ohioaninmiss   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 DebbiePSL   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:49 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Heather   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 drcrazibob   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:41 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 BillD   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 h2ocean   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 EaglezFan42   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Jamiewx   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Doombot!   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:32 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 EaglezFan42   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:27 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 ShanaTX   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:34 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Jamiewx   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:38 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 EaglezFan42   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 SeeSaw99   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 h2ocean   Sun Jul 10 2005 11:08 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 h2ocean   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:38 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 Keith234   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:40 PM
. * * Re: NRL says Noname 5 GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:42 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 Tropics Guy   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:54 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 AMK   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 Tropics Guy   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 h2ocean   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 MikeG   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 Tazmanian93   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 Doombot!   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: TD # 5 h2ocean   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Margie   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath RevUp   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath craigm   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Wxwatcher2   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Clark   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath RedingtonBeachGuy   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:28 PM
. * * TD 5 Forms Jamiewx   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Lysis   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Clark   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath laxpimpj   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Clark   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Pensacola101   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:54 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Lysis   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Clark   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Clark   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:54 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Keith234   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Jamiewx   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:47 PM
. * * Max Mayfield Jamiewx   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Keith234   Sun Jul 10 2005 09:27 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath MichaelA   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath abyrd   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath NewWatcher   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Jamiewx   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Pensacola101   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Domino   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath craigm   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath laxpimpj   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Kal   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Lysis   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath craigm   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Big Red Machine   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath toemastergeneral   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Margie   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:30 PM
. * * done? HanKFranK   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: done? DebbiePSL   Sun Jul 10 2005 08:12 PM
. * * Re: done? BLTizzle   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath birdwomn   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:03 PM
. * * To Beatlesgal- ANDREW starwise   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath erauwx   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Keith234   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:35 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Dougyd   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:51 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath lunkerhunter   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Jwtexas   Sun Jul 10 2005 10:32 PM
. * * Category 3 danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Category 3 Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:34 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Kal   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:36 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Rich B   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath RevUp   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Margie   Sun Jul 10 2005 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath GuppieGrouper   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath EaglezFan42   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:32 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath stormchazer   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Dennis Aftermath Nate   Sun Jul 10 2005 05:19 PM

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