5 PM AST MON JUL 11 2005 .POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD. "GOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY A MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. " "THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE THE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN"
-------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
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