An interest section of a news article from BBC news on the recent early season activity. Full Article
The predicted spate of hurricanes in 2005 is part of a multi-decadal cycle of fluctuating sea temperatures.
"It is a natural cycle of a period of about 50 or 60 years," Professor Saunders told the BBC News website.
"The last peak of activity was in the 1950s and scientists have mapped this pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic sea temperatures back about 150 years, so they have two or three cycles of it."
However, Professor Saunders believes that global warming might be contributing to the problem.
"I think one has to wonder whether at least part of this activity could be due to global warming," he said. "Certainly, sea temperatures where hurricanes form have been the warmest on record over the last year or two."
Indeed, Dennis's early arrival is very irregular, and is yet another indication of the rough ride ahead.
"This year is quite unusual in that there is so much early activity," Professor Saunders said. "Dennis is only the second major hurricane to strike America in July. The other one happened in 1916.
"Often seasons which have high activity in July tend to be active for the whole season."
I am also thinking we will see Emily at 11, T-numbers have been 2.5/2.5 for a while which would support TS intensity, and the overall appearence may have improved. It also seems NHC was able to located a center as the co-ordinates are given in the 8:05pm Discussion.
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