The 06Z models are beginning to feel the second wave. One( I forget which...CMC?) really blow it up...JB is big on his teleconnections and sees the typhoone moving west missing the trough to its north and is looking for a similar pattern in the west ATL. If it is not Emily, then his interest is on the second wave.. Certainly the dynamic of having a bigger storm following to the NE will reshape the guidance on Emily. As presented by the one model that developed it, the second wave weakened the western extremity of the ridge and allowed Emily to get into the GOM at the end of the run period...
This much activity is more common for Sept. 12 not July. Are we looking at more than 21 storms?
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