Terra -- Dennis passed between Jamaica and Cuba, while the new path for Emily seems to take it south of Jamaica. While Dennis did churn up the waters that it passed over, winds around the storm can move surface waters around, leading to slightly higher water temperatures on the periphery of where the storm passed.
Unfortunately, what they aren't taking into account is that Emily's path takes it directly over areas that Dennis *did* pass over, in areas that are not as warm as the western Caribbean, and thus over areas that would have a greater impact on the storm than if it traversed directly over upwelled waters in the western Caribbean. Couple that with interaction with Jamaica and Hispaniola -- as we saw with Dennis -- and I think that the intensity forecast needs a little work. It may be 100kt in 5 days, but probably not 3. There will likely be fluctuations early on due to the rapid forward speed of the storm as well as in the 3-5 day time frame due to interaction with land to the north and upwelled waters due to Dennis.
(And is it me, or are Franklin's UMiami roots showing recently? First a jab at the Superensemble, despite the NHC knowing its limitations early on in the season, and now a mention of a UMiami product that is more readily available from and distributed by the Navy online at http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/. Hey, I'm just sayin'...)
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