hmmm.. emily sped up this morning and is still racing west. if that prescribed wnw bend doesn't start soon the thing will crash into trinidad. after its cdo went out and all that was left was banding and beautiful outflow this morning, the cdo came back this afternoon and the system looks solid again. old sailor's comment isn't off.. we have seen systems near or in the caribbean take off to the west and open up. unless it starts to deepen and gain latitude emily will more than likely be a central america threat and never get to the north. confidence on emily gets lower as it gets closer to trinidad.. if it speeds up anymore and doesn't get a couple degrees of latitude it will probably splatter and open up on the coast of venezuela in a day or two. then again if it deepens dramatically (which i think it should, but less so than before) it will turn wnw and get up near the official track). the disturbance se of emily has slowed down, separated from the itcz, lost most of its convection... while the one past the cv islands has sped up and is closing on it. it should act like a tarbaby and keep the cv low (99L) on a lower-latitude path for the meanwhile... that system should move mostly west for the next 2 days and slowly spin up... probably turn wnw as franklin after that. i don't buy the gfs prog that hangs it near bermuda for a few days with deep upper trough digging behind it, then squeezes it through the ridge. franklin will accelerate westward when that upper trough digs in behind it, i'm fairly sure. the threat will be florida up to the carolinas.. with a w to wnw moving system at impact around july 22, i reckon. ignoring the mm5 low in the boc.. see three other things of passing interest. westerly backing at the surface has again intruded into the sw caribbean... upper trough is moving w to the north, with diffluence and ridging building in aloft. too close to the coast, unlikely anything could spin up here. wave should come off africa tomorrow.. models not really seeing it, but it looks fairly impressive. surface trough with a good bit of convergence near 25/65 will have ridging build above it... models not really seeing anything out there either, though. that's pretty much everything. two systems, one an invest which should develop before friday... and three low-interest trouble spots that need to persist. HF 0150z13july
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