Looks like a mid/upper level feature as described in the Tropical Weather Discussion from NHC:
Quote: THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE NE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO 19N71W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE W ATLC...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N74W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO DIG S FROM A WELL DEFINED DEEP LAYERED LOW WELL N OF THE REGION ACROSS BERMUDA TO 23N74W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N66W TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SECOND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N44W S TO 29N47W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 52W...THUS ONLY STRATOCUMULUS LOW CLOUDS ARE APPARENT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OFF THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 29N12W SW TO NEAR 16N40W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 30W.
It does appear to be driving Emily on a more southerly path at the moment.
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 17/5/3
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