Clark or ANYONE: How good are the models at predicting 4-5 days out troughs and their strength. Obvoiusly, this would pull Emily North. The cone of error 5 days out looks for the most part relatively west. Just judging by the cone it seems to an amateur that they (NHC) don't see anything strong enough to pick Emily up such as a Florida hit west to NO. Things change day by day, I know, today southward. Main question though is regarding the reliability of whatever predicts what might pick up Emily north. And is it only troughs? What else can have an influence besides the weakening of the Bermuda H.
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