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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Idalia) , Major: 201 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 201 (Idalia) Major: 201 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Re: analog for emily?
      Wed Jul 13 2005 12:58 AM

Never say never, but it'd be pretty tough to make it back to the west Florida coast from the Yucutan. Opal in 1995 is the closest I can think of, and it formed near the Yucutan and ended up making landfall near where Dennis did the other day.

A storm forming in that vicinity and then moving to the NE is more likely to affect the west Florida coast than something moving west out of the Caribbean out of respect for inertial forces carrying the latter such storm continually to the west. It'd take an unusually strong trough reaching into the Gulf to result in such a path, no matter the storm, and you usually don't see those this time of year. For Emily? Not likely. For it to be a Florida threat, the initial predictions would have to bear out, something that looks rather unlikely at this point.

As for the debate on the "historic" start to the season -- I think that it's likely that something like this has happened before, like HF says. The satellite era is only about 40-50 years old, recon flights have a similar lifetime, and records from before the mid-1850s are pretty spotty. It may not have occured in our lifetime, but that does not mean that it hasn't happened before.

Ultimately though, all that matters for this season is that we have had a lot of storms thus far, all impacting land, and there doesn't appear to be anything to stem the tide of storms in the short-term. I figured we'd see a pretty active early July with an MJO cycle, but I'm not sure how much longer this will keep up. My best guess is that we'll have a fairly dull late July before kicking into gear once again around the end of the first week of August for the heart of the season. The way SSTs and shear are across the basin (and have been all season), however, it's going to take a trough taking hold across the region or an influx of dry Saharan air to really slow things down. When you have the two biggest contributors to development both favorable this early in the season, plus the requisite tropical waves to kick things off, you are going to see at least some development.

We've been helped by a monsoon trough-like feature across the basin for much of the season, whether in the SW Caribbean earlier in the season or now off of the coast of Africa. It's typically a feature you see with the East & (especially) West Pacific basins, but with it's presence and the added boost from the warm SSTs off of the coast of Africa and an endless supply of tropical waves, most everything that has been coming off of the continent lately has had a shot at developing.

I may post something to that effect to the blogs sometime Wednesday along with a look at Emily once again, but that's what I'm looking at right now.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also MikeCAdministrator Wed Jul 13 2005 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also jusforsean   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also Ryan   Sat Jul 16 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Blob off the NC coast... Bloodstar   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also ShanaTX   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moves West Other Disturbances Are Being Watched Also Beaumont, TX   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:25 AM
. * * Launch Katie   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Launch nandav   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:48 AM
. * * emily/yucatan ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:19 AM
. * * analog for emily? HanKFranK   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:03 AM
. * * Hiting a right? KZ   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:06 PM
. * * Hurricane Emily stormchazer   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:07 PM
. * * Re: analog for emily? ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:17 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? HanKFranK   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:26 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? ftlaudbob   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:31 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Ryan   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? rmbjoe1954   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Terra   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:00 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Terra   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:59 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? tpratch   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: analog for emily? BullitNutz   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Wxwatcher2   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Launch doubtful Beach   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: analog for emily? trinibaje   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:55 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? doug   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:28 PM
. * * Re: Model mania doug   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Big Red Machine   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:25 PM
. * * Weather - Discovery Colleen A.   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Weather - Discovery Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Weather - Discovery Katie   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Weather - Discovery Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Big Red Machine   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Neuro   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ShanaTX   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Model mania doug   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Low Level Center CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Model mania scottsvb   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Model mania scottsvb   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Tazmanian93   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:43 PM
. * * RECON Update danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:47 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Tazmanian93   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:48 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nowhammies   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:39 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Model mania rmbjoe1954   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ShanaTX   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Model mania FlaMommy   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Model mania kapSt.Cloud   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:21 PM
. * * Re: Model mania WeatherNLU   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: Model mania kapSt.Cloud   Wed Jul 13 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Model mania h2ocean   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:40 PM
. * * Big Girl? WeatherNLU   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Model mania GuppieGrouper   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:20 PM
. * * Re: Model mania kapSt.Cloud   Wed Jul 13 2005 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Model mania RedingtonBeachGuy   Wed Jul 13 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Model mania trinibaje   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Model mania CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ShanaTX   Wed Jul 13 2005 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Model mania jaxmike   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Model mania ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:44 PM
. * * Re: Model mania spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nowhammies   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Model mania richisurfs   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:20 PM
. * * Re: Model mania *DELETED* spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Model mania stormchazer   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Model mania richisurfs   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Model mania spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Model mania stormchazer   Wed Jul 13 2005 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:39 PM
. * * Re: Model mania DebbiePSL   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Beaumont, TX   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:50 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:54 PM
. * * trite taste twizted sizter   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: trite taste Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:10 PM
. * * Re: trite taste Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:14 PM
. * * Re: trite taste Girlnascar   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:22 PM
. * * Re: trite taste Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:29 PM
. * * Re: trite taste SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:34 PM
. * * Re: trite taste Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:41 PM
. * * Winds In Emily spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Domino   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Interesting thing about Camille for me Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily stormchazer   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Keith234   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Frank P   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:12 PM
. * * Right lawgator   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:55 PM
. * * Re: Right nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:59 PM
. * * Emily now a Hurricane Jamiewx   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily now a Hurricane MichaelA   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:10 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:50 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily stormchazer   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Jamiewx   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:09 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily stormchazer   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily h2ocean   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily drcrazibob   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Joe   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily ralphfl   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Advisory danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily MichaelA   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily wxman007   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:20 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily scottsvb   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily MichaelA   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Margie   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily javlin   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily HCW   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:17 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Domino   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Allison   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:56 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily Terra   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily ShanaTX   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily jr928   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Winds In Emily danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: trite taste Terra   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Emily Terra   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: trite taste angelswatch   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:37 PM
. * * Re: trite taste tpratch   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Model mania spencercape   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:32 PM
. * * Emily at 6 p.m Keith234   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Shuttle Launch Scrubbed Jeffmidtown   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle Launch Scrubbed MadDog   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:55 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle Launch Scrubbed Tazmanian93   Wed Jul 13 2005 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Shuttle Launch Scrubbed trinibaje   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Model mania Tazmanian93   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Model mania nl   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Model mania BullitNutz   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Colleen A.   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? CarlSpackler   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:28 PM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Tazmanian93   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Wxwatcher2   Wed Jul 13 2005 09:13 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Ryan   Wed Jul 13 2005 03:44 AM
. * * 5 AM Update danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 05:46 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update BullitNutz   Wed Jul 13 2005 06:52 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update GuppieGrouper   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:32 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update BullitNutz   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:08 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update EMS   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update GuppieGrouper   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:21 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update Wingman51   Wed Jul 13 2005 08:24 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update DrewC   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update NewWatcher   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Update Wxwatcher2   Wed Jul 13 2005 07:46 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:58 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 13 2005 01:12 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? HanKFranK   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:56 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? devgirl00   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:22 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Tazmanian93   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:55 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Thunder   Wed Jul 13 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Lysis   Wed Jul 13 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Random..Sorrry Ryan   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:25 AM
. * * Re: analog for emily? Clark   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:14 AM
. * * Even If.. Ryan   Wed Jul 13 2005 12:07 AM

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