emily: going to move pretty much like the nhc official says. initial intensity is too high.. long term intensity is too low. it may be a major hurricane at midmonth... don't know if there's a recorded precedent for that. future track mostly likely to threaten mexico. the 18z run of the gfdl is what i'd regard as the best example of track/intensity expected, shifted just south. 99L: i was thinking it would be a t.d. some time tomorrow, but this is uncertain. ssts will begin to pick up along its track tomorrow, but there is a large field of subsidence in its path. this will likely keep the convective pattern very sporadic... probably not enough to get this to a tropical cyclone. it also puts the future track in question.. the wave will work further west.. but its development chances are somewhat lower than before. then again, if/once it does develop it have an even lower chance of catching the trough in the central atlantic. east of 99L: new wave, good cyclonic turning in the associated mcc that came with it. something else to watch if it persists... nothing on the models though. HF 0552z14july
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