Further analysis of the RECON data by NHC indicates that the max wind report near the surface is closer to 80KTS, just shy of the 83kt threshold for CAT intensity. But additionally, the pressure has dropped another 4MB in the past hour alone, down to 992mb! And just as impressive, the temperature difference between the inside and outside of the core circulation (soon to be the eye) has increased to 7 degrees. This is clearly a CAT 2 hurricane.
The rapid increase in intensity, has been accompanied by an equally impressive increase in convection, with a very impressive outflow pattern developing in all directions, and clearly increase the odds that Emily has really begun a rapid intensification phase likely to last till morning. With the storm possibly approaching CAT 3 intensity during the next 12 hours. There is no clear indication yet of an eye, but the thermal characteristics reported by the RECON strongly suggest we will likely see one shortly as subsidence within the core of the storm increases
The new 00Z run of models shows a continued shift northward of the storm track, with the GFDL, and now the BAMD both showing Emily bypassing the Yucatan, and coming through the Yucatan channel by Monday. But the overall majority still show the storm hitting the upper Yucatan coast. But this is over 4 days, and 2,000 miles away. The statistical error leaves room for a potentially wide range of outcomes. Certainly though, recent model trends towards a slightly further northward track raises the risks for the western Gulf Coast states, in particular Texas, for a hurricane landfall towards the middle of next week. "
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