From yesterday: I feel the ultimate path will be determined by which way it goes by Jamaica. Looking a visible satellite we see the gulf devoid of any signifcant convection meaning that a large ridge has built there. The latest model run's of the GFDL and GFS seem highly likely given the steering regime. I would consider the NOGAPS or even the WRF solution right now even though that is generally not considered a synoptic model. The GFDL takes it over Jamaica which as we have seen in the past doesn't work, especially with a small tight strong circulation that is forecasted to near the area. Either way I think the BOC is a likely place for it to end up at the end of the forecast period. The biggest area that should be concerned in U.S should be Texas right now.
My thoughts from yesterday are the same today.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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