So far this year They have done an excellent job of predicting where the storms are headed. Sure there are fluctuations, but as is stressed here to *no* end, The NHC is the source. They are the group to listen to and to base your decisions on.
We have some really smart and intelligent people here, and the meterologists here are as solid as they come. But honestly, most of us are not pros, we're here as hobbiests who have a fascination, if not an outright love of hurricanes. (if you experience enough of them, I'm sure that love turns into a love/hate, but that's another story )
So, I just wanted to give a thank you to the NHC for their hard work.
Ok, On to Emily, As has been mentioned previously, there is nothing really coming down to break the ridge that's holding Emily to a WNW course, however it looks like there could be something pushing down into TX and LA on Saturday. If it's able to erode the ridge, it's possible the storm could shift more to the NW. That's the only thing I can see that *might* affect the forecast path. The storm (and the season for that matter) seems to be throwing climatology out the window so there goes the hurricane graveyard theory.
There's still a few days left, but Anyone in the yucatan is hopefully making the preparations they need to make for a major hurricane. I think the NHC is on target here, but if the storm does shift, I can see landfall happening between Corpus Christi and Houston. Water is warm, 29 - 31 degrees. I'm horrible at making intensity predictions, but if I had to put myself on the record, if it folows the NHC path as expected, 120 kts landfall on the yucatan, and recovering to hit mexico at 105kts. If it treks north, It'll hit harder.
The chances of it hitting Florida are about 1 in 100, if that high.
Just my thoughts -Mark
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2019.
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