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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
5 AM NHC Discussion-edited
      Sat Jul 16 2005 05:14 AM

HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

AIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR 118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT
VALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. EMILY HAS BEEN ON A 285 DEGREE HEADING FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND I SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT THAT MOTION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATES 24-HOUR 700-400 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED BY ABOUT 20 METERS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT MOTION AND PASS MORE THAN 60 NMI SOUTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EMILY MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW EMILY TO BRIEFLY MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY WESTWARD. LOCATION OF A SECOND LANDFALL IS DIFFCULT TO PREDICT AT 96 HOURS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

full text here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/160857.shtml

highlighted for emphasis~danielw

GHCC satellite frame of outflow.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES084520051973KGhNc.jpg

Edited by danielw (Sat Jul 16 2005 05:16 AM)

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* Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Sat Jul 16 2005 05:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica dearolecleo   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Allison   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica pcola   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:20 PM
. * * New Forums danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re: New Forums KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:02 AM
. * * Re: New Forums MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Re: New Forums KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:12 AM
. * * Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: franklin info jusforsean   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: franklin info MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls ShanaTX   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Nights danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls MikeInCorpus   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Emily danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:17 AM
. * * Emily-Late Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily-Late Recon Update ShanaTX   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:40 AM
. * * 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:14 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited SeeSaw03   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 11:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:20 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited ftlaudbob   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited rmbjoe1954   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:25 AM
. * * 99L... watch it tomorrow HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Intermediate Advisory-edited danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls tpratch   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Lurking danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Lurking tpratch   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:11 AM
. * * Re: New Forums rdcrds   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:11 AM
. * * Re: New Forums Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:37 AM
. * * Re: New Forums Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: New Forums drcrazibob   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: New Forums 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: New Forums 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica 52255225   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Terra   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica jrhurricane   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica cjzydeco   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica cjzydeco   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica trinibaje   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Ed in Va   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan NewWatcher   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan pcola   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan AndyG   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Tropical Wave in Atlantic` CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave in Atlantic` Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Lightning Question RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question gailwarning   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question 52255225   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question BobVee   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question gailwarning   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Emily Discussion danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan FlaRebel   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica HumanCookie   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Frank P   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Wingman51   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica MadDog   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica AgentB   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica AgentB   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Question about Emily Models Allison   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Question about Emily Models Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:40 PM
. * * RECON Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Emily regains major hurricane status WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite angelswatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite angelswatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Storm Cooper   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica nandav   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Ed G   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica nandav   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica NewWatcher   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rabbit   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rabbit   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica doug   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:30 PM

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