emily's cloud pattern got jarbled later this morning. recon says it isn't an erc... probably some subsidence intake near the end of the last erc overnight is my reckoning. emily was approaching the detritus of a weak upper low the other day, so maybe the remnant vorticity at the upper levels mixed up the outflow pattern or something. speculation.. either way the pressure is up to 946 which is typically a 3/4 borderline. the winds supported are a little higher according to recon.. i'd expect this to dip back down. path today should take emily in a little south of cozumel around midnight, back offshore near merida/progreso late tomorrow. spindpwn/spinup will probably resemble dennis crossing cuba about a week ago. think the left track bend prior to second landfall is slightly overdone, and that the storm will come in closer to the tx/mex border.. but not by much. cameron/willacy counties might get a few peripheral gales and a t.s. warning out of it... pretty sure it doesn't come close enough for significant damage, though. think second landfall intensity will be 3/4 borderline area. haven't given up on 99L. the low level vorticity is moving under the upper trough axis right now.. two maxes i can see. the southern max is weaker and moving mostly w near 23/58.. spotty convection out in front. the more formidable max is near 28/57 and moving wnw, with convection closer by. most of the convection associated with the wave is being forced near the exit region on the ne flank of that upper trough max near 20/60. as the wave axis passes the upper trough axis, it should start to generate a more conducive convective pattern for organization than the sheared pattern it's had for three days. if none of this happens in the next 36 hrs, or so... the whole thing is probably gone. if enough made it through the upper trough, though... it'll do some interesting things. SAL seems to have killed the wave action for now in the eastern atlantic. they may act up as they near the caribbean.. globals continue to forecast a wave-friendly environment for whatever regenerates when it gets back across... nothing showing right now to speak of. gfs is showing distant interest in a wave that comes off africa in about 9 days... tracking it as a discrete feature through day 16. nao has been mostly positive and soi as well.. oscillations in both can lead to more energetic mid-latitude breakaways and backing at low-latitudes... until they twitch again, it's up to the more energetic of the african waves to trigger disturbances. there is weak mjo action at play as well, so some time in august we may see a flash of that as well. HF 1656z17july
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