The eye on the Cancun radar is clearly showing evidence of an eyewall replacement cycle, just like what was hinted at during the 5pm discussion. Within the next few hours, we'll see the rest of that inner eyewall collapse and an eye of 25-30mi in diameter consolidate in its place. Once again, it looks like another landmass might just be spared the worst of a storm due to an eyewall replacement cycle right before land...we'll have to see how much this one takes out of the storm, but throwing it into a state of reconsolidation right as it is about to hit land should keep some of the intensity in check, both before it hits land and in the hours across/just past land tomorrow.
Given a little time over water Tuesday, the storm could well deepen once again in the warmest waters in the entire basin...though I'm not going to buy the deepening to 910-920mb that our MM5 is calling for. Outside shot at taking a run at its former intensity, but I don't think it'll have enough time. The further north it goes, the longer it sits over those waters...but also the more it interacts with the midlatitudes and the more likely it gets strong enough to have an eyewall replacement cycle occur near landfall. Further south keeps it over water a shorter period of time, which is both good and bad. Only time will tell as to what happens, and for now I see no reason to go against the NHC path, both in terms of intensity and track.
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