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Archives >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
Today's Extended Prog Discussion...
      Fri Sep 20 2002 03:51 PM

EXTENDED FCST DISC VALID MON SEP 23 2002 THRU FRI SEP 27 2002
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002

...MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE 500MB LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING
WHAT EFFECT HURRICANE "ISIDORE" MIGHT EVENTUALLY HAVE ON THE
MAINLAND OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH THIS STORM RIGHT INTO DAY 7. STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES NE OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEAR THE W COAST OF NOAM WILL
SANDWICH A BROAD N-S NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE N CENTRAL CONUS DAYS 3-5. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL SPREAD EWD TO THE E COAST IN THE DAY 5-8 PERIOD WITH VERY CHILLY
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE MEAN PATTERN STILL FAVORS "ISIDORE" EVENTUALLY BEING PICKED UP
AND PULLED N INTO THE SERN STATES. 00Z/19 MODEL RUNS WERE SPLIT ON ITS
TRACK IN THE DAY 4-7 TIME FRAME. THIS MORNING I THOUGHT THAT THE
AVN/ECMWF/UKMET MIGHT BE TRACKING ISIDORE SO FAR S INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE THAT IT WOULD NOT INTERACT WITH ANY SHORTWAVES MOVING
THRU THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS TROF. IN THIS MORNINGS RELEASE...I
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE AVN...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
ALONG/OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE NEW 12Z AVN DID NOT
CHANGE THAT REASONING. THE 00Z/19 CANADIAN/GFDL/NOGAPS AIMED
HURRICANE "ISIDORE" TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AROUND DAY
5. HOWEVER...THE 12Z/19 CANADIAN MODEL BACKED OFF FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND
NOW TRACKS "ISIDORE" FARTHER WWD INTO THE GULF CLOSER TO THE TRACK
OF THE AVN MODEL.

AFTER MY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH THE NHC...MY LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK OF "ISADORE" THRU DAY 7 IS FARTHER S AND W THAN IN MY EARLY
RELEASE. I HAVE NOT GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA THAT THE STORM WILL BE
EVENTUALLY PICKED UP AND PULLED NWD...BUT IT MAY TAKE LONGER THAN I
EARLIER THOUGHT.

WE CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT A SUBTROPICAL SYS DEVELOPED BY THE LATEST
AVN RUNS VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS DAY 3...THEN MOVED NNEWD OFFSHORE
THEREAFTER.


--------------------
Jason Kelley


Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 20 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Interesting week ahead. SirCane   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:49 PM
. * * STD #12 forms... Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:54 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:52 PM
. * * Isidore-an EXTREMELY tough call. And other tropical issues Kevin   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:36 PM
. * * Seems straight forward Rasvar   Fri Sep 20 2002 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch cyclone_head   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:00 PM
. * * well... Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:16 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:36 PM
. * * 12 is out there Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:41 PM
. * * Today's Extended Prog Discussion... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Today's Extended Prog Discussion... anonomyous   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Today's Extended Prog Discussion... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:31 PM
. * * well Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:46 PM
. * * EEK! Colleen A.   Fri Sep 20 2002 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:01 PM
. * * LOOPY MODELS - IS IT SUCH A SURPRISE IN THE GULF` OrlandoDude   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:15 PM
. * * Human Forecasts and thoughts, for a change... wxman007   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:25 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Havana Radar Loop Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:48 PM
. * * While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Cycloneye   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:31 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:46 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:47 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:09 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:53 PM
. * * Re: While Izzy decides his next move Kyle and Lili are in the horizon scottsvb   Fri Sep 20 2002 03:00 PM
. * * Crossing Cuba Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Crossing Cuba in less than an hour with cuban coffee Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Kimmie at work   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:22 PM
. * * the izzy sandwich HanKFranK   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:48 PM
. * * A note on the WSW movement... Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:24 PM
. * * Re: A note on the possible WSW movement... Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:31 PM
. * * Question???????? Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:45 PM
. * * Re: the izzy sandwich Joe   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:59 PM
. * * radar Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:04 PM
. * * Re: radar Anonymous   Fri Sep 20 2002 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Steve   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Mexico to Miami Needs To Watch Brett   Fri Sep 20 2002 01:50 PM

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